Methods for interpolating missing data in aerobiological databases.

Missing data is a common problem in scientific research. The availability of extensive environmental time series is usually laborious and difficult, and sometimes unexpected failures are not detected until samples are processed. Consequently, environmental databases frequently have some gaps with missing data in it. Applying an interpolation method before starting the data analysis can be a good solution in order to complete this missing information. Nevertheless, there are several different approaches whose accuracy should be considered and compared. In this study, data from 6 aerobiological sampling stations were used as an example of environmental data series to assess the accuracy of different interpolation methods. For that, observed daily pollen/spore concentration data series were randomly removed, interpolated by using different methods and then, compared with the observed data to measure the errors produced. Different periods, gap sizes, interpolation methods and bioaerosols were considered in order to check their influence in the interpolation accuracy. The moving mean interpolation method obtained the highest success rate as average. By using this method, a success rate of the 70% was obtained when the risk classes used in the alert systems of the pollen information platforms were taken into account. In general, errors were mostly greater when there were high oscillations in the concentrations of biotic particles during consecutive days. That is the reason why the pre-peak and peak periods showed the highest interpolation errors. The errors were also higher when gaps longer than 5 days were considered. So, for completing long periods of missing data, it would be advisable to test other methodological approaches. A new Variation Index based on the behaviour of the pollen/spore season (measurement of the variability of the concentrations every 2 consecutive days) was elaborated, which allows to estimate the potential error before the interpolation is applied.

Increasing resolution of airborne pollen forecasting at a discrete sampled area in the southwest Mediterranean Basin.

Daily fluctuations of the airborne pollen concentrations produce variations on symptomatology in allergic population. Such fluctuations are influenced by local vegetal coverage, flowering phenology, geography and climatology. Since 1991, airborne pollen of Malaga province (southern Spain) has been monitored in 7 different locations. Malaga station has been kept operational uninterruptedly throughout the studied period, while the rest of the stations only worked in periods of 2-4 years. Weekly, its pollen information is updated online to inform the population in order to prevent allergic diseases. Increasing the spatial resolution of pollen information would be very useful for allergic population living at unsampled locations. Due to the impossibility of keeping operational a high number of pollen stations covering the whole province of Malaga, the aim of this study is to create spatial models to extrapolate and forecast the pollen concentrations to Malaga province by using the concentrations registered at the capital as unique input. To do so, the relationships obtained between the airborne pollen concentrations detected at Malaga city and those detected at the other stations have been used to elaborate models for the main pollen types registered at the province. These models were spatially interpolated all over the province by using co-kriging techniques and the Compensated Thermicity Index as covariable. As result of this work, pollen distribution of the 8 most prevalent taxa has been depicted all over the whole Malaga province and an allergy alert system has been set up to extrapolate pollen information from Malaga to the whole province.

Wind dynamics' influence on south Spain airborne olive-pollen during African intrusions.

Given its proximity to northern Africa, southern Spain is regularly affected by high-altitude African intrusions. This determines a well-defined wind dynamics at surface levels. Although this weather event-mainly recorded in spring and summer-coincides with the flowering season of many wind pollinated species, its potential influence on long term airborne pollen transport has been not investigated in detail. We analyse their influence on olive pollen transport at surface level in south Spain. Daily and bi-hourly olive pollen data from 2010 to 2015, recorded at two sites 150km apart, Málaga (coast) and Córdoba (inland), were analysed together with 1) air masses at 300m above ground level (m.a.g.l.), 2) surface wind direction and 3) surface wind speed over the same period. Air masses at 3000m.a.g.l. were used to identify the periods under the influence of African intrusions. The combined analysis has enabled the identification of different pollen patterns and source contributions. In Málaga, hourly pollen peaks were recorded during the early morning coinciding with the arrival of north-westerly winds (developing sea-land breezes), with a minimal impact of local pollen sources; in Córdoba, by contrast, pollen concentrations reflected the joint contribution of local and long term sources, being the maximum concentrations associated with the arrival of southerly air masses in the afternoon. These results help to understand the potential distant sources and back-trajectories of olive pollen detected. In our case pollen from sources located at the west-northwest areas in the case of Malaga, and from the south in Cordoba. These results reinforce the idea that combined studies between synoptic meteorological and aerobiological data together with different atmospheric height air masses data, offer us a better explanation and understanding of the behaviour and the potential sources of recorded airborne data in a given place.

Modeling olive pollen intensity in the Mediterranean region through analysis of emission sources.

Aerobiological monitoring of Olea europaea L. is of great interest in the Mediterranean basin because olive pollen is one of the most represented pollen types of the airborne spectrum for the Mediterranean region, and olive pollen is considered one of the major cause of pollinosis in this region. The main aim of this study was to develop an airborne-pollen map based on the Pollen Index across a 4-year period (2008-2011), to provide a continuous geographic map for pollen intensity that will have practical applications from the agronomical and allergological points of view. For this purpose, the main predictor variable was an index based on the distribution and abundance of potential sources of pollen emission, including intrinsic information about the general atmospheric patterns of pollen dispersal. In addition, meteorological variables were included in the modeling, together with spatial interpolation, to allow the definition of a spatial model of the Pollen Index from the main olive cultivation areas in the Mediterranean region. The results show marked differences with respect to the dispersal patterns associated to the altitudinal gradient. The findings indicate that areas located at an altitude above 300ma.s.l. receive greater amounts of olive pollen from shorter-distance pollen sources (maximum influence, 27km) with respect to areas lower than 300ma.s.l. (maximum influence, 59km).

Airborne pollen trends in the Iberian Peninsula.

Airborne pollen monitoring is an effective tool for studying the reproductive phenology of anemophilous plants, an important bioindicator of plant behavior. Recent decades have revealed a trend towards rising airborne pollen concentrations in Europe, attributing these trends to an increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and temperature. However, the lack of water availability in southern Europe may prompt a trend towards lower flowering intensity, especially in herbaceous plants. Here we show variations in flowering intensity by analyzing the Annual Pollen Index (API) of 12 anemophilous taxa across 12 locations in the Iberian Peninsula, over the last two decades, and detecting the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results revealed differences in the distribution and flowering intensity of anemophilous species. A negative correlation was observed between airborne pollen concentrations and winter averages of the NAO index. This study confirms that changes in rainfall in the Mediterranean region, attributed to climate change, have an important impact on the phenology of plants.

A new method for determining the sources of airborne particles.

Air quality is a major issue for humans owing to the fact that the content of particles in the atmosphere has multiple implications for life quality, ecosystem dynamics and environment. Scientists are therefore particularly interested in discovering the origin of airborne particles. A new method has been developed to model the relationship between the emission surface and the total amount of airborne particles at a given distance, employing olive pollen and olive groves as examples. A third-degree polynomial relationship between the air particles at a particular point and the distance from the source was observed, signifying that the nearest area to a point is not that which is most correlated with its air features. This work allows the origin of airborne particles to be discovered and could be implemented in different disciplines related to atmospheric aerosol, thus providing a new approach with which to discover the dynamics of airborne particles.

Alternative food improves the combined effect of an omnivore and a predator on biological pest control. A case study in avocado orchards.

Ecological communities used in biological pest control are usually represented as three-trophic level food chains with top-down control. However, at least two factors complicate this simple way of characterizing agricultural communities. First, agro-ecosystems are composed of several interacting species forming complicated food webs. Second, the structure of agricultural communities may vary in time. Efficient pest management approaches need to integrate these two factors to generate better predictions for pest control. In this work, we identified the food web components of an avocado agro-ecosystem, and unravelled patterns of co-occurrence and interactions between these components through field and laboratory experiments. This allowed us to predict community changes that would improve the performance of the naturally occurring predators and to test these predictions in field population experiments. Field surveys revealed that the food-web structure and species composition of the avocado community changed in time. In spring, the community was characterized by a linear food chain of Euseius stipulatus, an omnivorous mite, feeding on pollen. In the summer, E. stipulatus and a predatory mite, Neoseiulus californicus, shared a herbivorous mite prey. Laboratory experiments confirmed these trophic interactions and revealed that N. californicus can feed inside the prey nests, whereas E. stipulatus cannot, which may further reduce competition among predators. Finally, we artificially increased the coexistence of the two communities via addition of the non-herbivore food source (pollen) for the omnivore. This led to an increase in predator numbers and reduced populations of the herbivore. Therefore, the presence of pollen is expected to improve pest control in this system.

Detection of airborne allergen (Ole e 1) in relation to Olea europaea pollen in S Spain.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, it has been demonstrated that the air carries not only airborne pollen but also plant particles of smaller size that have allergenic activity, and, being within the respirable range, these particles can trigger rapid attacks in the lower respiratory tract. The study of particles according to size (0.7-40 micro m) could provide valuable information on the real allergenic activity in the atmosphere. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to analyse the dynamics of airborne Olea europaea pollen in contrast to the allergenic activity of Ole e 1 in the atmosphere. METHODS: The analyses were carried out with a Hirst-type volumetric collector and a cascade impactor simultaneously during the MPS of the olive. The indirect ELISA was used to detect the allergenic activity. The sampling was performed in Granada city centre (S Spain), in the Science Faculty building on the University of Granada from 30 April to 26 June 2005. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrates that both the allergenic activity as well as the pollen particles follow in a similar curve, except in periods before or succeeding the main Olea pollen season. The study of the distribution of the allergenic particles according to their sizes reveals that the highest concentrations are between 3.3 and <0.7 micro m, thus indicating that allergenic activity primarily involves paucimicronic particles.

Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several sites in Andalusia and the effect of the expected future climate change.

Olives are one of the largest crops in the Mediterranean region, especially in Andalusia, in southern Spain. A thermal model has been developed for forecasting the start of the olive tree pollen season at five localities in Andalusia: Cordoba, Priego, Jaen, Granada and Malaga using airborne pollen and meteorological data from 1982 to 2001. Threshold temperatures varied between 5 degrees C and 12.5 degrees C depending on bio-geographical characteristics. The external validity of the results was tested using the data for the year 2002 as an independent variable and it confirmed the model's accuracy with only a few days difference from predicted values. All the localities had increasingly earlier start dates during the study period. This could confirm that olive flower phenology can be considered as a sensitive indicator of the effects of climate fluctuations in the Mediterranean area. The theoretical impact of the predicted climatic warming on the olive's flowering phenology at the end of the century is also proposed by applying Regional Climate Model data. A general advance, from 1 to 3 weeks could be expected, although this advance will be more pronounced in mid-altitude inland areas.

Pollinosis due to Australian pine (Casuarina): an aerobiologic and clinical study in southern Spain.

An aerobiologic and clinical survey was conducted in Málaga, southern Spain, in order to determine fluctuations of Australian pine (Casuarina) pollen in the atmosphere of the city, and the prevalence of sensitivity in a nonatopic population. The aerobiologic survey, using a Burkard spore trap, was conducted from January 1991 to December 1994, and sensitization was ascertained by the skin prick test. The pollen season is relatively short and the pollen dispersion period occurs during October and November, mainly during the last 3 weeks of October. Diurnal patterns showed that the highest concentrations of pollen occur between 12 a.m. and 2 p.m., the most influential variables in its dispersion being temperature, sunshine, and rainfall. The prevalence of sensitization to Casuarina pollen was determined by skin prick test (SPT) in a nonatopic population of 210 patients with a previous history of autumn rhinitis, asthma, or rhinitis asthma. Six subjects showed a positive reaction to the pollen extracts, and the presence of specific IgE was demonstrated by the conventional radioallergosorbent test (RAST > or = 2) in five of these patients with positive SPT.